Merkel’s party punished, defeated in Hamburg parliamentary elections

Merkel’s party “punished”, defeated in Hamburg parliamentary elections
The ruling party Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel was defeated in the local elections in Hamburg on the 23rd.Many news agencies have interpreted this as a punishment by voters for the CDU.  [Bitter day]The Secretary-General of the Democratic Alliance for the Democracy of the People’s Republic of China, Paul Zimiak, said: This is a bitter day for the CDU in Germany and a historically bad result in Hamburg.  In the election on the 23rd, the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party have become the biggest winners and are expected to join hands in power.Export polls show that the CDU’s vote rate is only 11.2%, ranking third, the worst result in Hamburg local elections.  Reuters explained that the CDU elections were associated with the Thuringian Governor’s election earlier this month.In that election, the CDU local party department ignored the opposition of National Chairman Anne Grek Kramp-Karenbauer, broke 四川耍耍网 the political taboo, and joined forces with the right-wing populist party, the German Select Party, to help other party candidates come to power.  This incident uproared German politics and public opinion.Merkel blame the inexcusable, the newly elected governor of Thuringia had to announce his resignation, and Merkel’s successor Kramp-Kallenbauer was accused of poor leadership and also announced his resignation.  Preliminary results show that in the local elections in Hamburg, the CDU ‘s ruling coalition party ‘s Social Democratic Party won 39.1%, a drop of 6 percentage points from the previous election, but still holds the position of Hamburg’s largest party; the Green Party’s vote rate nearly doubled to 24.1%; Election Party benefits from voter dissatisfaction with Merkel’s immigration policy, with 5.The 3% vote rate just crossed the 5% threshold and squeezed into parliament.  [Immediate task]The priority of the CDU, which suffered a defeat in Hamburg, is to quickly determine the new party’s first candidate to replace Kramp-Karenbauer, who decided to resign.Merkel, who has been prime minister for 15 years in a row, has announced that she is no longer seeking re-election.  Reuters reports that the CDU leadership met on the 24th, and Kramp-Karenbauer is expected to set a timetable for the election of the party leader, and it is also possible to discuss the determination of candidates.There are already four to five people in the CDU intending to compete for this position.  As a coalition party forming the federal government, the SPD has competed with the CDU in the post of prime minister.However, after climate change was among the main domestic political issues in Germany last year, the Green Party ‘s overall catch-up has left this center-left party behind.  At the national level, conservative parties represented by the CDU still have the advantage, followed by the Greens, which rose to second place in support.Many political analysts believe that after the federal parliamentary elections in October next year, the Greens are bound to occupy a place in the next coalition government.  Robert Harbeck, the leader of the Green Party, told Deutsche Television One that the election of the Hamburg Parliament was a major victory for the Green Party, that German democracy was facing challenges, and that the CDU took care of itself . It is our turn to provide direction and trust for the country.(Field) (Xinhua News Agency special feature) Original title: Merkel’s party “punished”, defeated in Hamburg Parliament elections

The social security fund budget amounts to 2.6 trillion investment last year made 300 billion

The social security fund budget amounts to 2.6 trillion investment last year made 300 billion
Original title: Social Security Fund budget reached 2.6 trillion investment yield 15 last year.5%, earning $ 300 billion.Source: Daily Economic News Editor Wang Ruidong Editor Xiao Ruidong A-share market surged in 2019, and the fund also ushered in a big year of investment. Among them, the performance of social security funds is single and enviable-the investment of the National Social Security Fund in 2019Yield reached 15.5%, according to preliminary accounting income of 300 billion yuan.  On January 11, Chen Wenhui, deputy chairman of the board of directors of the National Social Security Fund, revealed the investment income and asset scale of the social security fund in a public event.  In the end, the regulatory authorities successively issued policy documents to support the marketization of the pension system. From the promotion of occupational annuities to the market, the pilot implementation of personal tax deferred commercial pension insurance to the issuance and operation of public pension target funds, the 厦门夜网 main construction of the pension system has achieved certain results.  Cumulative investment income1.The 25 trillion RMB investment income in 2019 is quite abundant, and social security funds are no exception.  It is said that Chen Wenhui revealed that preliminary calculations indicate that the investment income of the National Social Security Fund in 2019 will exceed 300 billion yuan, and the investment return rate will be about 15.5%.As of the end of 2019, the cumulative investment income1.25 trillion yuan, with an average annual return on investment of 8.15%.  ”Daily Economic News” reporter combed the social security fund’s equity investment performance report since 2010, and found that in the past 10 years, most annual social security funds can bring benefits to investors, only losses in 2018, including equity investment.cut back.8.5 billion yuan, the return on investment fell by 2.28%; budget, 2014, 2015. Social security funds also experienced double-digit investment returns.  At the same time, Chen Wenhui also revealed the aggregate data of the National Social Security Fund assets.As of the end of 2019, the total assets of the social security fund were 2.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 16 each year.1%, the total assets of the earlier 10 years have increased more than double.  Holding the stock market value of 2190.What is the investment direction of the 1.9 billion Social Security Fund?How did you achieve such results?  According to Wind data, as of the end of the third quarter of 2019, social security funds appeared in the list of the top ten circulating shareholders of 548 listed companies, holding a stock market value of 2,190.1.9 billion yuan.Compared to mid-2019, positions are more concentrated, 21 stocks have been removed from the list of the top ten shareholders of outstanding shares, and the stock market value has increased by 10 billion yuan.  The reporter noticed that the five major industries of banking, biomedicine, electronics, chemical industry, and food and beverage were held by the social security fund as “heavy money”, and the stock market value was over 10 billion yuan.Among them, Sunshine Power, Changshu Bank, and Sun Paper became the focus of increasing holdings in the third quarter of 2019.  According to Chen Wenhui, in terms of ensuring the sustainability of the pension system, the social security fund indicators have mainly undertaken some specific tasks: First, the investment return rate of the basic pension insurance fund entrusted to manage has increased significantly.As of the end of 2019, the Social Security Foundation has signed entrusted investment contracts for basic pension insurance funds with 22 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities, with a total contract value of US $ 109.3 billion and an actual accounted capital of US $ 908.1 billion.Since the end of 2016, since the basic pension insurance fund was entrusted to operate, the cumulative investment income has been US $ 89.4 billion, with an average annual investment yield of 5.76%.Among them, a preliminary calculation in 2019 shows that the investment yield is about 9.6%, with pre-commitment valuations significantly improved.  The second is to transfer state-owned capital, enrich social security funds, and promote intergenerational equity.Up to now, there are 81 central enterprises and central financial institutions totaling about 1.The transfer of 33 trillion US dollars of conventional capital has started the transfer process, of which 58 companies have completed the transfer, and the existing capital scale transferred to the social security fund exceeds 800 billion.  As one of the specific implementing agencies, the social security fund indicators, while doing a good job in the transfer of equity, next focus on research to promote two aspects of work: First, to study the management, operation, disposal, and return of funds for the transfer of equityAnd income reinvestment to provide sufficient and sustainable cash flow in a timely manner to ensure the full benefits of aging. In the future, we will strengthen cooperation with financial institutions such as investment banks and asset management institutions. Second, we will gradually take the opportunity to promote the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises.Achieve shared development results for all people.

Qixin Group (002301) semi-annual report comment: high-performance growth of two-wheel drive business has broad prospects

Qixin Group (002301) semi-annual report comment: high-performance growth of two-wheel drive business has broad prospects
Event: On the evening of August 14, the company released its financial report for the first half of the year: it achieved operating income in the first half of 201926.63 ppm, a 57-year increase of 57.94%; realized net profit1.400,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.43%. Opinion: High-speed growth in performance, obvious improvement in cash flow report, and the company’s total operating income26.63 ppm, a 夜来香体验网 57-year increase of 57.94%, realized net profit1.400,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.43%, realized deduction of non-net profit1.23 ppm, an increase of 50 in ten years.55%.The company’s B2B business is driven by high-speed growth, and its annual revenue in the first half of the year increased by 61.83%.Video conferencing business revenue grows by 23 annually.17%, maintaining steady and rapid growth.With the expansion of the scale of centralized procurement in the company’s supply chain, the company increased the settlement ratio of centralized procurement and supplementary bills, responded to the increase in bills, saved capital occupancy, and significantly increased the company’s ability to repay.69 trillion, a net decrease of 2.6.6 billion. The gross profit margin has improved in the short term, and the later scale effect will help the gross profit margin to rise. The company’s gross profit margin is 16.66%.Compared with the same period last year, the gross profit margin decreased by 3.66 pct, definitely the company’s B2B business gross profit margin decreased by 2 over the same period last year.76.According to the report scale, the company’s B2B business scale expanded rapidly, and the product categories provided to customers continued to increase. Some of the newly added product categories have not yet formed the scale effect of centralized procurement, and the gross profit margin is still low.As the company’s B2B business’s centralized procurement and supply capacity is continuously enhanced, and its bargaining power is continuously improved in the supply chain, the company’s gross profit margin will gradually increase. The competitiveness of B2B business continued to improve, and cloud video conferences continued to break through the B2B business. In addition to winning bids in traditional stationery, equipment, home appliances, and consumables, the reported merger company also continued to win in high value-added categories such as MRO industrial products.Up to now, the company has gradually won the bids for office collection projects of nearly 150 large-scale government and enterprise customers, including 80 provincial and municipal governments, 24 central enterprises, 15 bancassurance institutions, and 15 military industrial enterprises.In terms of cloud video conferencing business, the company’s cloud video conferencing and Tencent have established a strategic cooperative relationship. In addition to the continuous enrichment of smart hardware product lines, they have also introduced education, party building, medical and other industry solutions.The company’s smart party building project has been continuously implemented in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places.Smart education programs have been implemented in Fujian, Guangdong, Guizhou, and Jiangxi.Cloud video conferencing opens up future growth space for smart party building and online education.In the direction of smart medical care, the company has started business cooperation with Guiyang Aikang Guobin and Shantou Central Hospital. The subsequent market expansion is worth looking forward to. Investment suggestion: Optimize the market prospect of the company’s large office platform and the development potential of cloud video conferencing.It is expected that net profit attributable to mothers will be realized in 2019-2021.00, 3.99, 5.180,000 yuan, optimistic about the company’s business development prospects, maintaining the “overweight” level. Risk warning: Business development is worse than expected, and industry competition is intensifying.

Wanhua Chemical (600309) company research: rapid growth of new materials business in line with expectations

Wanhua Chemical (600309) company research: rapid growth of new materials business in line with expectations

In Q3’s revenue and profit potential, the company’s performance was in line with expectations.

The company released the third quarter report of 19, the first three quarters of 19 the company achieved operating income of 485.

US $ 3.9 billion, previously adjusted revenue (after merging Wanhua Chemical, the same below) decreased by 12.

48%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

9.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 every year.

75%, equivalent to EPS 2.

52 yuan / share; net profit after deduction of 72.

4.7 billion, down 43 each year.

52%; expected average ROE is 19.

86%, a decrease of 25 per year.

70 units.

Among them, Q3 single-quarter company achieved operating income of 170.

00 ppm, a decrease of 6 per year.

62%, achieving net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

78 ‰, a decline of 25 per year.

47%, the company’s performance is 北京夜网 in line with expectations.

  The sharp decline in MDI prices has dragged down the company’s performance, and the contrarian trend has strengthened the industry’s pricing power.

2019Q3 single quarter gross margin of 26.

86%, down 5 from the previous month.

99 pct, net interest rate 14.

15%, down 4 from the previous month.

73 pct, due to the further decrease in the price of polyurethane products. The company’s net operating cash flow in the first three quarters of 2019 was 131.

22 trillion, down 15 a year.

45%, due to the sharp drop in MDI prices of major products; 200 under construction.

88 million, an increase of 96 per year.

USD 6.4 billion, mainly due to the increase in investment in the Yantai Industrial Park engineering project, which mainly includes a 100-ton ethylene project and an isocyanate integration and energy expansion technology upgrade project. After the expansion of the polyurethane series, the company’s MDI product sales and market share will further increaseThe improvement is conducive to strengthening the company’s global pricing capabilities. At the same time, the ethylene projects supporting polyurethane can have synergies in the industrial chain.

  MDI prices and profitability are at historically low levels, and potential risks are gradually being released.

The average direct listing price of the company’s aggregated MDI in the first three quarters was 15,567 yuan / ton, down 34 for a period of time.

01%, the average listing price of pure MDI was 23,511 yuan / ton, a continuous decline of 23.

72%.

Aggregate MDI and pure MDI historical listed lowest prices are 10,000 yuan / ton and 16,000 yuan / ton in the fourth quarter of 2015. At present, the price and profitability of MDI are at historically low levels. The downward space is reduced, and the risk of product price cycle is gradually obtained.At the same time, because MDI is an oligopoly, the upward elasticity of product prices penetrates in the event of a recovery in downstream demand.

  Continuous efforts were made in research and development and innovation, and the fine chemical and new materials business grew rapidly.

In the first three quarters, the company’s fine chemical and new materials business achieved revenue of 50.

3.8 billion, an increase of 20 every year.

15%, of which Q3 single quarter revenue was 18 trillion, an increase of 19 a year.

44%.

After the company’s PC, PMMA and other new products are gradually put into operation, the rapid growth of the new materials sector’s performance has been transformed into the stable operation of new equipment and downstream customer development. It is expected that the profitability of the new materials business will continue to increase, and the company’s waterborne coatings willSynthetic fragrance, ADI, nylon 12 and other products will continue to provide protection for its growth.

  Profit forecast and investment advice: What do we expect the company to do in 2019?The net profit attributable to mothers will be 102 in 2021.
59/122.

25/153.

810,000 yuan, equivalent to 3 EPS.

27, 3.

89, 4.

90 yuan, currently corresponding to a total of 13.

2, 11.

1 and 8.

8x PE, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk reminder: the progress of increasing production capacity release exceeds expectations, raw material procurement and exchange rate risks, environmental protection and production safety risks, the growth of downstream demand growth, and the project commissioning schedule is not as expected.

Another ETF explosion-Huitianfu CSI 800 ETF raised 6.6 billion in fundraising-

Another ETF explosion: Is Huitianfu CSI 800 ETF fundraising 6.6 billion?

China Fund News reporter Li Shuchao’s stock ETF products are back!

  The first product announced in October, Huitianfu CSI 800ETF, was issued with a scale of US $ 6.6 billion, which ushered in a “starting point” for the new fund issuance in the fourth quarter. This fund also became the 15th fundraising fund with a scale of over 2 billion yuan during the year.Explosive stock ETF products.

  6.6 billion!

Large-cap wide-base ETF reappeared on October 9th, Huitianfu CSI 800 ETF released the fund contract effective announcement, the only fund 1.

730,000 households subscribed for a total of 66.

US $ 0.1 billion, which became another explosive wide-based ETF product established after the ICBC Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF and the Bosch CSI 500 ETF this year. The number of newly established stock ETFs exceeding 2 billion this year has also expanded to 15Far more than the number of 6 last year.

  Since the beginning of this year, ICBC CSI 300 ETF, which tracks the CSI 300 Index, has its first fundraising scale of 68.

6.4 billion yuan, which tracks the establishment of the CSI 500 ETF.

With US $ 6.2 billion, Huitianfu Fund established an equity ETF tracking the CSI 800 Index with an issue size of US $ 6.6 billion, which once again set off a small upsurge in the issuance of the broad-based broad-based ETF.

  In fact, in last year’s stock market turbulence, institutional funds and ordinary investors used stock ETFs to fall and buy more, and the size of stock ETFs expanded rapidly against the market. In particular, the broad-based wide-based ETFs were favored by investors and became funds.An important asset allocation tool for participating in stock market transactions.

  Since the beginning of this year, various public offerings have subsequently strengthened the layout of non-cargo-based ETFs. The total number of 53 non-cargo-based ETFs newly established during the year has reached 1175.

61 trillion, which is 255 higher than the total scale last year.

4.4 billion yuan, an increase of 27 during the year.

76%.

  In the newly established non-cargo-based ETFETF, the explosive ETF has become a gold weapon.

  According to Wind data, as of October 9th, the total issue size of 15 stock ETFs with a scale of more than US $ 2 billion during the year was 929.

USD 8.9 billion, accounting for 79 of the newly established non-cargo-based ETFs this year.

1%.

  From the perspective of the type of explosive funds, the concept of ETFs driven by the innovation of state-owned enterprises, the reform of local state-owned enterprises, and regional development has a noticeable effect.

For example, Bo Shi, Jia Shi, GF, and Wells Fargo’s four publicly funded central SOEs’ innovation-driven ETFs attracted a total of 406 gold.

US $ 8.7 billion; Huitian Fuzhong Securities CSI Yangtze River Delta integrated development ETF, Ping An Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau Greater Bay Area ETFs issued more than 6 billion U.S. dollars; China Securities CSI Sichuan State Reform ETF first raised up to 3.7 billion U.S. dollars.

  In addition, the opening of the science and technology board caused technology ETFs to become a fan of funds.

Huaxia CSI 5G Communication Theme ETF raised 41 for the first time.

At 500 million yuan, Huatai Barry CSI 100 ETF was issued21.

200 million US dollars, Castrol CSI emerging technology 100 strategy ETF, Huabao CSI TapETF issue scale also stood at 1 billion mark.

  Finally, the broad market wide-base index is also favored by funds.

ICBC CSI 300 ETF raised 68 for the first time.

600 million yuan, Bo Shi CSI 500ETF raised 27 for the first time.

600 million yuan.

  Talking about the frequent occurrence of explosive funds this year, a fund manager of a large-scale public fundraising quantitative investment department in Beijing analyzed that since the scale of passive funds increased against the market in the second half of last year, the value of stock ETF allocation tools has been recognized by more and more investors.As for the allocation of large institutions such as banks and insurance, including overseas funds, small private placements are actively participating, and the proportion of individual investors is also rising. Some listed companies have also exchanged for ETFs through stock exchanges.

  The fund manager said, “Allocating funds and trading funds are pouring in, which has led to the phenomenon of explosive funds, and domestic stock ETFs have also entered the fast track of development.

“Table 1: This year ‘s explosive funds with a scale of more than US $ 2 billion (data source: wind) form a broad-based broad-based ETF with a differentiated competitive landscape. From the perspective of the current mainstream broad-based wide-based ETF market, each leader of the wide-based ETF market is divided.Belonging to a number of public offerings, a differentiated competitive landscape is beginning to take shape.

  The data shows that as of the close of October 8, the South China Securities 500 ETF topped the China Securities 500 Index with 43.5 billion, the size of Huaxia Shanghai 50ETF was US $ 40.9 billion, the size of Huatai Barry Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF was 34 billion, which was 27.2 billion more than Huaxia Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF.The scale of 22.8 billion of Castrol CSI 300 ETF is one order of magnitude higher; E Fund’s GEM ETF is worth USD 18.6 billion, forming a competitive advantage in the GEM Index.

E Fund’s Hang Seng H-Share ETF and Hua Xia Hang Seng ETF respectively form the leading positions in the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index.

  It is obvious that among the leading stock ETF products, SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, GEM Index, SSE 180 Index, etc. all have ETF products of more than 10 billion scale, while SZSE 100 and CSI 800,There are currently no tens of billions of funds in the Hang Seng Index and other fields.

  In response to the frequent appearance of large-scale wide-base ETF leading tens of billions of funds, the fund manager of the above-mentioned large-scale public equity quantitative investment department in Beijing said that from the perspective of the development history of overseas markets, most of the stock ETF products that ranked first in the market belonged to large-cap wide-base index:This is because such indices have large market capacity, good liquidity and active trading in the market, and will not have an impact on individual stock transactions. It is more likely to become the investment target of large funds. Second, the large-cap wide-base index is difficult to bring excess returns.The performance of many active funds is difficult to outperform the broad market wide base. Through productization, low fees, and high transparency, it is easier to obtain the favor of funds.

  A financial product analyst at a large securities firm in Shanghai also believes that from the top ten products in the U.S. stock ETF market, the broad-based broad-based index, value, growth and other style indexes are easy to become large-scale strength funds, and Russell 1000 was selected.The size of the index and Pioneer Value ETF are 厦门夜网 more than 40 billion US dollars.

  ”The broad market broad-based index product has a large market capacity and it is easier to increase the size of the fund.From the perspective of future development trends, in fact, the stylized Smart Beta ETF also has broad development prospects. Explosive products must have large capacity, good liquidity, good physical examination, and long-term profit making effects. Obvious investment style and earning powerThe smart index’s future outlook and the broad market broad base are evenly divided, and the stock ETF market will grow together.

“The financial product analyst said.

  Table 2: Main products of current mainstream broad-based ETF (data source: wind)

Panjiang Co., Ltd. (600395): 19Q1 coal business price rose in volume, profitability is strong, Southwest coking coal leader with high dividends

Panjiang Co., Ltd. (600395): 19Q1 coal business price rose in volume, profitability is strong, Southwest coking coal leader with high dividends
Asset impairment losses in 2018 were significantly reduced, and the main business operations in 19Q1 significantly improved. 天津夜网 The company achieved a net profit of 9 in 2018.4.5 billion, an increase of 0 in ten years.68 ppm or 7.7%, which translates to zero budget revenue.57 yuan.The company’s overall business gross profit is at least once a year.1 ppm, the expenses during the period remained stable, and the increase in performance growth was mainly reduced by the decrease in asset impairment losses2.700 million. The company’s net profit attributable to the mother was 2 in Q1 2019.96 trillion, an increase of 0 in ten years.21 trillion or 7.5%, of which the company’s operating business gross profit increases by 1 every year.10,000 yuan, mainly benefited from the previous increase in volume and volume of coal business. 19 Q1 Commercial coal production and sales increased by 8 quarterly.4% and 5.5% of profit per ton of coal is at the forefront of the industry in 2018: the company’s raw coal output is 869 inches (+5 each time.0%), commercial coal production and sales were 682 digits (+1).9%) and 739 budget (previously +2.7%), of which 343 is blended with refined coal production (-2.3%), the proportion of clean coal production is about 50.3%.The estimated ton of coal income is 785 yuan (three years -3.4%), the cost per ton of coal is 522 yuan (ten years-0.8%), the net profit per ton of coal was 109 yuan, a slight increase several times.According to the company’s annual report, the company plans to produce 910 raw coal in 2019, an increase of 41 or 4 per year.7%. 19Q1: The company’s commercial coal production was before 182 (+8.4%), commercial coal sales were 195 tons (+5 per year).5%).Estimated ton of coal income is 812 yuan (+5 for the whole year.1%), the cost per ton of coal is 519 yuan (multiple +1.6%), the net profit per ton of coal is about 162 yuan, which remains basically stable every year, and the profitability of per ton of coal is at the forefront of the industry. At present, the coal mine is under construction with a total capacity of 330, and at least many projects are waiting for approval. According to the company’s annual report, the company currently has 5 coal mines in production, with a total capacity of about 935 tons.The coal mines under construction mainly include: Phase I (90 tons) of Hengpu Company’s Faer No. 2 Mine, which is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2020; Ma Yixi’s No. 1 well (240 feet), which is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2022.In addition, the company is also accelerating the approval of the second phase (150 months) of excavating the Er Er Mine; accelerating the pre-disposal of the Mayidong 1 well project; accelerating the technological transformation and expansion of old mines; adopting mergers and reorganizations, hosting, geological disaster recovery and integrationGovernance and other methods, actively seek high-quality resources and advanced production capacity, and expand the main coal industry. Profit forecast and investment advice The company is a coking coal leader in the southwest region. Due to the inconvenience of coal transportation in the southwest region, the market is relatively closed. In recent years, the coal mines in the provinces and cities around the company have made rapid progress in reducing production capacity.It is a national energy base and has abundant resource reserves. It is responsible for coal supply in the southwestern region, and has obvious geographical advantages. In addition, the company’s coal business still has room for growth in the future.At least, the current capacity under construction (330 tons) is expected to be gradually put into operation in the next few years, while several projects are waiting for approval.At the same time, as the core listing platform of Panjiang Coal and Electricity Group, the company is expected to benefit from the integration of resources in Guizhou Province in the future.According to the company’s annual report, the Guizhou Provincial Party Committee and Provincial Government has gradually promoted the strategic reorganization of the company since 2018. The former Guizhou Water and Mineral Holdings Group Co., Ltd., the Guizhou Lindong Mining Group Co., Ltd., and Liuzhi Industry and Mining (Group) Co.All the shareholders of the company have shareholders Panjiang Coal and Electricity Group. The profitability of the company’s coal business, and the net profit per ton of coal is at the forefront of the industry.At the same time, the company’s dividend rate is also high, the average dividend rate in the past two years is nearly 70%, and the dividend yield is more than 6%.The 杭州夜网论坛 company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.62 yuan, 0.64 yuan and 0.68 yuan, the corresponding dynamic PE is 9 respectively.2 times, 8.9 times and 8.4 times.The company’s current PE (TTM) is 9.8 times, and the average PE (TTM) since 2017 is 14 times. We give the company 11 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value of 6.82 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: the macroeconomic downturn, coal price movements exceed expectations, and the company’s asset impairment losses increase after the transfer of the three supply and one industry.

Depth: Special Study on Local Government Debt (with data on debt burden of 31 provinces and cities)

Depth: Special Study on Local Government Debt (with data on debt burden of 31 provinces and cities)

Local Government Debt Special Study-Attached to the debt burden data of 31 provinces and cities and 382 regions. Author 丨 Ren Tao Sources 丨 Bzzk-research (ID: Bzzk-research) under the pressure of economic downturn, local government’s responsibilities reduced,The role of government debt during the period has become increasingly important.

  1. Regarding the historical retrospection of local government debt, the summary of important policy information and the latest policy developments (1) The historical retrospection of everything has its cause, and when it comes to the gradual issue of local government debt, it must also be traced back a long time.

  1. In the 1990s, the central government ‘s fiscal constraints were severe, accounting for a very small proportion of national budget revenue (less than a quarter). It is in this context that the state introduced tax-sharing reforms in 1994 (such asIn the provincial and sub-provincial tax bureaus, the State Taxation Bureau and the Local Taxation Bureau have been set up) to achieve the goal of increasing financial power and keeping the power of affairs unchanged, and local governments have been facing increasingly serious financial problems since then.One year, the “Budget Law” was formulated and implemented, that is, to supplement local government deficits and raise debt to finance.

  2. In the 1990s, especially after the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998, local governments were under increasing pressure for infrastructure construction, but due to their limited financing channels (cannot borrow from banks or issue bonds, etc.),It is also restricted by the policy of “allowing deficits”, and local governments are prevented from breaking through the financial difficulties.

In this context, commercial banks (especially major commercial banks) suggest that local governments set up financing platform companies to undertake commercial bank credit.

Local governments have also established financing platform companies through 武汉夜网论坛 land asset transfers and other methods. Since then, financing platform companies have played an increasingly important role in local government debt financing.

  3. After the financial crisis in 2008, the supplement of local government financing platforms became more prominent.

In particular, the No. 92 (“Guiding Opinions on Further Strengthening the Adjustment of Credit Structure to Promote the Stable and Rapid Development of the National Economy” issued by the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, encourage local governments to increase local financial discounts, improve credit compensation mechanisms, and establishGovernment financing platforms and other methods support local governments with conditions to set up financing platforms and issue financing instruments such as corporate bonds and medium-term notes.

In October of the same year, the Ministry of Finance also issued Circular 631, which clarified that supporting funds for local governments can be raised through market mechanisms using government financing platforms.

  4. Under the above-mentioned trend of thought, the number of local financing platform companies has grown rapidly and currently exceeds 10,000.

Since 2009, local financing platform companies have started to borrow on a large scale, and financing methods have not continued to use bank loans. They also include the full use of corporate bonds, project income bonds, short-term financing bonds, medium-term notes, special debt, policy bank loans, and special construction.Funds, bank credit, non-standard, Internet finance, P2P, etc., so the scale of local government debt is getting higher and higher, and the problem is getting worse.

  5. Regarding this, the regulatory authorities have started to control and control local government financing platforms since 2010, including Guofa Circular 19 (“Notice on Strengthening the Management of Local Government Financing Platform Companies”), Banking Regulatory Circular 10 (“Guidance on Strengthening the Loan Risk Supervision of Local Government Financing Platforms in 2013) and so on.

In fact, the issuance mechanism of local government bonds is also constantly being adjusted, from generational repayment to spontaneous repayment, to the current spontaneous repayment.

  6. In 2014, the central government started debt screening for local governments. In September of the same year, the State Council issued Document 43 (“Opinions on Strengthening the Management of Local Government Debts”), which clearly separated government and corporate debt and began to nationwide.Scope to rectify local government debt issues.

  7. The new budget law of 2015 makes it clear that local governments issuing local debt through provincial governments are the only legal government financing channels.

However, in this context, local governments began to use PPP or funds to borrow in disguise.

Various hidden alternatives other than local government debt have sprung up (such as issuing letters of commitment, financial leasing, changing government purchase service agreements, etc.), and the local government’s illegal borrowing activities have again reached a climax.

  8. During 2014-2015, the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance successively launched special bonds. In 2015, the local government bond replacement work was gradually started.

So far, the scale of special bonds has reached nearly 10 trillion yuan, and the scale of replacement bonds has also exceeded 14 trillion yuan.

  9. In 2017, in the context of providing horizontal reform, non-standard financing was faced with very strict supervision, and PPP and local construction funds began to face a full inventory. It is also in this context that the growth rate of investment in infrastructure construction began to decline significantly.From the previous 15% to below 5%, the overly stringent regulatory policies and local government debt are facing problems that cannot be continued, and the policy began to consider adjusting some of the previous policies.

  10. Under the pressure of economic downturn, the function of infrastructure support has become prominent again, and subject to the impact of previous financial deleveraging, some local government financing platforms face the risk of capital chain breakage. Under this risk, the State Council and the China Banking Regulatory Commission successively releasedDocuments 101 and 76 clearly stated that financial institutions must meet the reasonable financing needs of financing platforms, and history has entered a new cycle.

  (2) Summary of important policy information As far as China is concerned, policies related to local government debt have almost never ceased, and have always been lingering in the market.

Due to the scale of relevant policy documents, only some of the more important policy information is summarized here.

  (3) Latest policy developments: Financing platforms have regained their lives, CDB intervenes in local government debt resolution work. There are roughly three latest policy developments on local government debt. We summarize them as follows: 1. 2018 State Council No. 101 and Banking Regulatory Commission No. 76No., explicitly requires financial institutions to meet the reasonable financing needs of financing platform companies, and must not blindly draw down loans, cut off loans, or suspend loans. To avoid necessary supply of projects under construction, the supply of funds should be avoided, and the project should run out of business.

  2. The 2019 government work report clearly stated that this year it is planned to arrange special bonds for local governments2.

15 trillion yuan, an increase of 800 billion yuan from last year, providing funding support for key project construction, and also creating conditions for better prevention and resolution of local government debt risks.

Reasonably expand the use of special bonds.

Continue to issue a certain number of local government replacement bonds to reduce the local interest burden.

Encourage a market-oriented approach to properly resolve the debt maturity of financing platforms, and do not engage in “half-later” projects.

  3. Since 2019, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, and Xiangtan, Hunan, and other places have been dating China Development Bank to resolve local government debts by replacing debts that expired with long-term loans.

  4. The press conference of the two parties ‘finance ministries in 2019. The relevant leaders of the finance ministries stated that they will cancel the supplementary hidden debts and establish a new financing platform company, and adhere to the principle of no central rescue.

  First, monitor local finance, including financing platform companies, and take accountability as soon as the situation is discovered.

  Second, cancel illegal financing activities and raise debt in disguise in the name of government investment, government and social capital cooperation, and government purchase of services.

  Third, financial institutions must not provide financing for projects that do not have a stable operating cash flow as a source of repayment or have no legal compliance resistance to pledged property.

  Fourth, adhere to the principle of non-rescue by the central government, insist on who raises debts and who is responsible, so that “who has children and who holds it”, continue to rectify illegal guarantees, and correct irregularities in government investment funds, PPP, and government procurement services.

  Fifth, the newly established financing platform companies will be cancelled, the market-oriented transformation of financing platform companies will be promoted by classification, and the government financing program of financing platform companies will be transferred, and local governments will be resolutely stopped from turning public welfare institutions into financing platforms.

  It can be trimmed. Under the downward pressure of the economy, the role of local governments is more important. The reasonable financing needs of government financing platforms require the support of financial institutions, but the concept of breaking the rigid payment has not changed. Financial institutions must continue to adhere to the principle of focusing on the first.The idea of promoting the transformation of financing platforms is still ongoing.

  Second, the main categories of local government debt classification To resolve the debt of local government debt should be more clearly classified, we try to classify from the following dimensions: (a) according to the form of expression, divided into major local government debtAnd hidden debt We try to classify local government debt by popular methods, that is, the so-called explicit debt is the direct local government has direct repayment responsibility or guarantee responsibility, and the rest replaces hidden debt.In fact, in classifying debt, World Bank senior economist Hana Palacova Rrixi published articles on “contingent debt” in 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2002,The financial risk matrix is divided into four categories: direct explicit, direct implicit, or explicit and implicit. These two classifications have also been reflected in the gradual category policy.In the file.

  In practice, the hidden debt channels are diverse, including local governments through financing platforms, purchasing services, PPP, various development funds and guidance funds, characteristic towns, financing leases, gold exchanges, etc., and the source of funds also includes financial institutionsOn-balance-sheet loans, off-balance-sheet loans, factoring, bills, guarantees, gold exchanges, asset management plans, etc., and more often involve unlawful methods such as real debt, quotation agreements, and commitments to buy back.

  The “local government hidden debt” was first mentioned in the July 2017 Central Political Bureau meeting. In the subsequent policy documents, the controlled local government debt also mostly refers to hidden debt.

On April 18, 2018, the National Audit Office issued the “Announcement on the Results of Auditing the Tracking of the Implementation of Major National Policies and Measures in the Fourth Quarter of 2017”, saying that it was issued by six cities and counties in five provinces through violations of regulations.In lieu of borrowing in disguise, such as substituting engineering government purchase service agreements, and forming hidden government debt 154.

2.2 billion.

This is the first time that a specific number of government hidden debts has been released by a national auditing agency, but it is only the tip of the iceberg that reveals the large scale government hidden debts.

  The hidden debts are mainly concentrated at the city and county levels, mainly because these local governments cannot finance by issuing local debts, so they can only raise funds through urban investment bonds and hidden debts.

The China Financial Stability Report (2018) also confirms our indicator.

  (2) According to the sources of debt repayment funds, significant debts can be increased and further divided into general bonds and special bonds. According to 2014 No. 43 (that is, the “Opinions on Strengthening the Management of Local Government Debts”), local government debt is divided into generalDebts and special debts, of which the size of general debts and special debts are replaced by restricted management and full-caliber budget management, determined by the State Council and reported to the NPC Standing Committee for approval, and subregional reductions are approved by the Ministry of Finance at the first standing committee of the NPCThe scale of local government debt is measured and reported to the State Council for approval based on factors such as debt risks and financial conditions in various regions.

The so-called local government special bonds refer specifically to bonds issued by local governments according to specific projects and using government funds or special income corresponding to the projects as the source of principal and interest repayment.

  The difference between general bonds and special bonds is that local government general bonds mainly use general public budget revenue as the source of principal and interest payments, while local government special bond bonds are mainly government funds for specific projects or special income as the source of principal and interest payments.

Along with this, general debt revenue and expenditure require general public budget management, and special debt revenue and expenditure require government fund budget management.

  At this stage, the size of general bonds has reached nearly 11 trillion yuan, with maturities of 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 7 years, 10 years, 15 years, and 20 years.

The special bonds have maturities of 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, 7 years, 10 years, 15 years, and 20 years, and their scale has reached nearly 10 trillion yuan.

At present, there are mainly three types of special bonds: ordinary special bonds, special bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance beginning in 2014, and special bonds issued by the Development and Reform Commission from 2015.

Among them, the local government special bonds of the Ministry of Finance include the existing land reserve special bonds, toll highway special bonds, rail transit special bonds, shantytown reconstruction special bonds, education project special bonds, public college special bonds, scale allocation engineering special bonds, and ruralThere are 8 major categories, including the revitalization of special bonds, with a total of 669 bonds, and the scale has also reached 1.

About 7 trillion.

  The special bonds of the Development and Reform Commission currently include special bonds for the elderly industry, special bonds for strategic emerging industries, special bonds for the construction of urban parking lots, special bonds for the construction of urban underground comprehensive corridors, special bonds for the construction and transformation of distribution networks, and special bonds for incubation and incubation.A total of 281 bonds with a scale of 300.1 billion yuan.

  (3) Explicit debt is further divided into supplementary bonds and substitute bonds according to the purpose of the raised funds. If divided according to the purpose of the raised funds, the explicit debts of local governments can also be divided into supplementary bonds and substitute bonds. The supplementary bonds are mainly used forFor new project investment, replacement bonds are mainly used to replace the existing debt, and the replacement special bonds are even further divided into directional replacement and non-directional replacement, the so-called refinancing special debt (in popular terms, borrowing new and old).

  The replacement of local bonds was officially launched in early 2015, and the size of the replacement bonds was issued that year3.

2 trillion, after nearly 4 years of development, the size of the replacement bonds has now exceeded 14 trillion.

In particular, on May 12, 2015, the Ministry of Finance, Expansion, and the CBRC jointly issued a document (“Notice on Matters Concerning the Issuance of Local Government Bonds by Using Targeted Underwriting in 2015”), clarifying the replacement of stocks issued by the local government in 2015 by the Ministry of Finance.The bond restrictions internally used local underwriting to issue a certain amount of local debt. On May 18, Jiangsu Province took the lead in issuing 52.2 billion local bonds (30.8 billion for replacement bonds), which officially opened the prelude to local government replacement bonds.

  Third, the issue of local government special bonds: the issue of a large-scale increase in the issue of special bonds can also replace the function of existing debt, to a certain extent and the targeted downgrade in monetary policy to replace similar functions.

  (1) The summary of relevant policy documents issued by the State Council in 2014 issued Document No. 43, which proposed that local governments use government bonds to raise debt. The development of non-profit public welfare undertakings should be financed by the issuance of general bonds by the local government.Financing.
Eight policy documents have so far regulated the special bonds for local governments, and successively introduced eight types of special income bonds for projects.

  (II) Main motivations and shortcomings of special bonds for local governments1. Main motivations: Make local government debts significantly and market-oriented, and standardize local government debt financing mechanisms. We believe that there are the following main motivations and reasons: First, comparisonThe official statement is conducive to alleviating local fiscal tensions, strengthening government investment and financing capabilities through special government bonds, and enhancing local governments’ ability to promote economic growth.

In particular, the special bonds for project income can enable local governments to achieve the purpose of special funds while borrowing, which is conducive to standardizing local government financing mechanisms and making it easier to monitor local government debt and risk levels.

  Second, in order to make local government debt significantly and market-oriented, strengthen local government debt management.

It is now clear that the scale of the policy encourages local government bonds as a significant financing method, while the hidden debts are strictly controlled, and the policy constraints on local government financing platforms also show obvious importance.

  Third, local government special bonds are at least significant debts and still belong to interest rate debts. Investors ‘interest income can be exempted from income and replacement, and their issuance costs are usually replaced by local governments’ traditional financing methods, plus policies.The existence of sexual interest margin space has led to a significant increase in the investment value of local government special bonds and a serious decline in issuance.

  Fourth, although the special bonds of local governments are for special purposes and self-balancing of financing projects, they are actually the function of the government, especially for project income claims, which are not profitable during the conversion stage. Generally,Local government special bonds only solve a certain percentage of the funding sources (for example, the second single rail transit special bond issue of 1.8 billion is only 60% of the funding of Wuhan Metro Group).

  2. The main disadvantage: The degree of marketization is not enough. Because special bonds can correspond to specific projects one by one, there will be corresponding assets, income, cash flow and other information, so the pricing will be fairer.

Although policies and regulations have been preliminarily guided, special debt and general debt have continued to improve, and the specific projects of special debt have been mixed.

  Second, investors are not rich enough, and liquidity is lacking, that is, the secondary market has not really developed, nor has it been able to give full play to the incentives and constraints of market mechanisms such as credit ratings, information disclosure, and market-based pricing.Special investment relies more on the support of so-called policy spreads.

  At the same time, in addition to the above two shortcomings, the local government special bonds still have unclear positioning (such as the issuance of special bonds that takes the provincial government as the main body and cannot distinguish the credit status of the provincial and other city and county main bodies).

Taking into account that the main investment entities are mainly commercial banks, it means equivalent to providing financing to local governments through bank credit in disguise. If the subsequent risks are released, they will be further transferred to commercial banks, putting commercial banks under certain pressure.

  However, no matter what the local government’s special bonds currently lack, we should still see that the local government’s subsequent financing through special bonds is the trend. After all, for the government, this is the most transparent and explicit financing method.

Although it was just created in 2015, the subsequent annual issuance quotas have almost all increased by leaps and bounds, and the four-year issuance quotas in 2015-2019 are 0.

10 trillion yuan, 0.

40 trillion, 0.80 trillion yuan, 1.

35 trillion and 2.

The $ 15 trillion fracture shows the high-level recognition of local government bonds.

Especially in the context of the continuous economic downturn and the extremely complicated surrounding environment, special government bond preparations are expected.

  Fourth, local government financing platforms: At this stage, to meet reasonable financing needs, there are a total of 11,567 local government financing platform companies. Local financing platforms have been responsible for replacing local government financing for a long period of time.Can obtain loans from banks, non-standard financing from financial institutions, etc., and the main body of the local government financing platform is also located at the provincial, prefecture-level, county-level or below.

  (1) A total of 1,002 companies were classified and found, and only 2264 companies were found to be provincial credits (including provincial capitals and single-ranked cities), accounting for less than 1/5.

There are 6,175 credits at the prefecture level, accounting for about 56%, and more than 20% at the county level.

  (2) Zhejiang Province ranked first with 1,490 local financing platforms, Sichuan Province ranked second only to 780, Jiangsu Province ranked third and fourth and 710 Guangdong Province respectively.

  (3) It should be said that the local government financing platform of more than $ 1 trillion at this stage is a bit like the facts of the trust industry in the past, and will inevitably face relatively severe rectification. With reference to trust companies and local financial asset management companies, through mergers and reorganizations, etc.Ways to reduce the number of financing platforms in various provinces and cities and so on.

  (4) As the financing platform is also an existing enterprise to a certain extent, the financing platform is promoted through third-party guarantees and mortgages, “debt-loan portfolios”, the establishment of financing guarantee funds, and other means to increase debt financing and date social capital through the PPP model.Providing funds for financing platforms is also the main way to promote the transformation of financing platforms.

  V. Explanation of local government debt burden (1) The amount of bonds to be redeemed in 31 provinces, cities, and regions in the next three years: Partial local debt repayment pressure to resist We counted the government bonds and cities that need to be redeemed in 31 provinces and cities during the period of 2019-2021.The amount of bonds invested (excluding other hidden debts), and the ratio of corresponding fiscal revenue.

From the national average level, the amount of bonds repayable in 2019 accounts for the ratio of public financial revenue, and the ratio of bonds repayable in public funds in 2019-2021 and the ratio of public financial revenue to GDP are 28.

69%, 101.

06% and 12.

13%.

Among them, the amount of bonds (including local government bonds and urban investment bonds) to be repaid by 31 provinces and cities in the country in 2019, 2020 and 2021 will be 3 respectively.

18 trillion, 3.

45 trillion and 4.

57 trillion.

Considering that implicit debt is not divided here, the actual pressure may be much greater.

  1. The provinces and municipalities with a debt repayment ratio of more than 40% of public financial revenue in 2019 are Hunan (62.

58%), Jiangsu (59.

12%), Shaanxi (58.

45%), Yunnan (54.

97%), Qinghai (52.

13%), Chongqing (51.

55%), Guizhou (46.

27%), Guangxi (44.

39%), Tianjin (43.

28%), Sichuan (40.

21%) Wait for ten.

  2. In the next three years, Guizhou (249.

13%), Hunan (202.

39%), Yunnan (197%), Qinghai (187.

47%), Chongqing (185.

10%), Jiangsu (177.

81%), Shaanxi (160.

19%), Guangxi (159.

52%), Tianjin (153.

27%), Sichuan (146.19%), Gansu (134.

41%), Inner Mongolia (132.

42%), Hubei (128.

56%) and so on.

  3. The provinces and municipalities whose public fiscal revenue accounts for more than 10% of their GDP are mainly Jiangsu, Hunan, Shaanxi, Hubei, Henan, Hebei, Fujian, Guangxi and Qinghai.

  4. At present, the overall significant debt scale is close to 27 trillion yuan, and even according to 1: 1, the hidden scale of local government debt is also nearly 30 trillion yuan. Therefore, it should not be a problem for the local government debt scale to exceed 50 trillion yuan.But considering that 90 trillion yuan in GDP is currently only 11 trillion yuan in public financial revenue, the debt burden rate of local governments can be imagined.

  (II) Current stock bond balances and fiscal revenue in 382 regions: debts can only be repaid by borrowing new or replaced ones. Although fiscal revenue in many regions can cover bond fund expenditures in the next three years,Looking at the ratio of bond balance to its fiscal revenue, the pressure is very obvious.

Because only the provinces, provincial capitals, and planned cities have the qualifications to issue local government bonds, most of the financing in the other regions can only be issued through the urban investment platform. This also results in a large proportion of bond balances in fiscal revenue in many regions at this stage.Most can only be repaid by borrowing new or replacing them.

Therefore, from this perspective, it is necessary to keep financing costs low to solve the problem of local government debt.

  As of now, there are 117 provinces, municipalities, and regions with outstanding bond balances that exceed their fiscal revenue, and 14 regions have outstanding bond balances that exceed 10 times their fiscal revenue.

Funding plan on the 14th: The main funds have been reduced to 4.5 billion.

Funding plan on the 14th: The main funds have been reduced to 4.5 billion.

[Funds plan plan for the 14th]The main funds with a net amount of more than 4.5 billion US dollars have been rushed to raise 5 shares. Source: Securities Times. On August 14, the overall A-share market grew.

The final close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2808.

91 points, up 0.

42%, SZSE Component Index closed at 8966.

47 points, up 0.

At 72%, the GEM index closed at 1,536.

66 points, up 0.

81%.

The total turnover of the two cities is 4023.

5.7 billion yuan, an increase of 627 over the previous trading day.

07 billion.

  1 The net capital of the two cities can be reduced by 44.

Today’s 7.1 billion yuan in Shanghai and Shenzhen’s main cities opened a net decrease of 6.

8.5 billion, a net decrease of 20 in late trading.

46 trillion, the net capital of the two cities can be reduced by 44.

7.1 billion yuan.

  2 Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 today’s main fund net replacement 15.

47 trillion CSI 300 today’s main fund net exchange of 15.

4.7 billion yuan, GEM net inflow of 0.

4.8 billion yuan, a small net reduction of 13.

2.6 billion.

The Shanghai Stock Connect saw a net decrease of 3.

6.7 billion yuan, the net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect 19.

03 trillion (here the China-Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect net net amount is based on the amount used on the day, which is slightly different from the net purchase amount of the transaction, but the meaning is generally the same).

  3 Net inflow of food and beverage industry 22.

Out of the top 28 Shenwan Tier 1 industries with 200 million yuan, 5 industries achieved net capital inflows, of which 22 were food and beverage industry net inflows.

200 million.

  The four major consumption concepts have a net inflow of 30.

In terms of the 9.6 billion top concept segment, today’s big consumption, brand leader, liquor, high-profit growth stocks and other conceptual segments showed a net inflow of funds, of which a large consumption concept net inflow of 30.

9.6 billion.

  5Keli Sen’s main net inflow of funds4.

4.9 billion (Note: The main force of net inflow statistics in this table is different from 杭州夜网论坛 the net purchase statistics of the institutions in the previous table and the next table).The data showed that the institution appeared 13 shares, of which 5 shares including Kanglong Chemicals showed net purchases of institutional funds, and 8 shares including Shengbang Chemicals showed net sales of institutional funds.

  7The top ten active stocks of Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect today

Tamron (603158): Q3 operation significantly improves continuous mergers and acquisitions worth looking forward to

Tamron (603158): Q3 operation significantly improves continuous mergers and acquisitions worth looking forward to
Event: The company announced the 2019 third quarter report, the company’s operating income in the first three quarters6.75 ppm, a decrease of 8 per year.5%; net profit attributable to mother 0.79 trillion, down 4 a year.28%.  Comments: 1.Q3 performance achieved growth compared with the previous quarter.Company Q3 single quarter revenue 2.4 trillion, an annual increase of 8%, an increase of 9%; net profit attributable to mother 0.310,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, a month-on-month increase of 3%.The fundamentals of the company have improved significantly.  2.It plans to increase its holding of Xinyuan Power to build a leading A-share fuel cell.It intends to acquire Beijing Tianyuan Auto, consolidating its main business.The report summarizes that Tenglong intends to acquire all the new sources of power held by Dalian Insulation.With 86% equity, Xinyuan Power is the first company in China dedicated to the industrialization of fuel cells. It has taken the lead in domestic production of key materials, key components, and complete stack systems for proton exchange membrane fuel cell engine systems.The third generation of high-integration, high-power stacks with independent intellectual property rights.  The company further increased its shares in New Energy Power, and merged New Power Power’s experience in hydrogen fuel cells, technology and sales channels, and gradually developed into a leading fuel cell company.  At the same time, the company intends to acquire 76% equity of Beijing Tianyuan Auto. Tianyuan Auto promises to gradually realize a net profit of no less than 180 million yuan from 2019 to 2021.Tianyuan Auto is a domestic leader in rubber, plastic and plastic pipes. It aims to help the company open up the heat exchange system throughout the entire industrial chain, effectively reduce costs and consolidate its main business.  3.The rapid development of new energy thermal management business.In the field of new energy vehicles, the company has expanded and strengthened the development of new energy model projects for traditional customers. The company has also cooperated with Weilai, Xiaopeng, Guoneng Automobile and other new car building forces, and has already established new energy products with many existing customers.Including SAIC Auto, Geely Automobile, Dongfeng, Chery, Zotye and other independent brands, as well as joint ventures such as Guangben, Dongben, Shenlong, etc., the application of heat exchange systems, automotive electronic water pumps, and lightweight materials in new energy 苏州桑拿网 vehicles has been expanded.The new energy vehicle business is an area where the company’s revenue growth has accelerated in the past two years.  4.Since the company’s listing, it has continued to make outbound mergers and acquisitions, open up the heat exchange system exchange and the layout of the entire EGR industry chain. At the same time, the rapid development of new energy vehicle heat exchange, the fuel cell business is also expected to become a leader in A shares.It is estimated that Tianyuan Auto will be partially consolidated in the fourth quarter, and we expect the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2021 to be: 1.3/1.9/2.400 million, corresponding to 23/15 / 13X PE.  Risk warning: Automobile sales are lower than expected, Tianyuan Auto’s performance is lower than expected.

Spring Airlines (601021): Stabilizing revenue and optimizing third-quarter results until it rose 26.

1%

Spring Airlines (601021): Stabilizing revenue and optimizing third-quarter results until it rose 26.

1%

Spring and Autumn Airlines disclosed third quarter report Spring and Autumn Airlines disclosed third quarter report and achieved operating income of 44 in the third quarter.

2 billion, an increase of 14 in ten years.

8%, net profit attributable to mother 8.

6.5 billion, an increase of 26 in ten years.

1%; operating income of 115 in 深圳桑拿网 the first three quarters.

600 million, an annual increase of 13.

6%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 17.

1.9 billion, an increase of 21 in ten years.

7%.

  In the third quarter, the operation and investment improved, and the revenue was basically stable. The business volume and revenue growth basically matched the company’s ASK114 in the third quarter.

2 billion, an increase of 13 in ten years.

3%, RPK105.

0 billion, an increase of 16 in ten years.

4%, the growth rate was slightly higher than the second quarter, the load factor was 91.

9%, an increase of 2 per year.

42pct, of which domestic passenger load factor doubled 0.

54pct, the international line increased by 6.

92 points.

The unit income decreased slightly, but considering the increase in load factor, the company’s seat-kilometer income in the third quarter was basically stable, and business volume and income growth basically matched.

  The unit fuel cost decreased, and the unit non-oil cost improved from the low oil price. We estimate that the company’s fuel cost in the third quarter was less than 1.1 billion, which was basically the same as the same period last year.We estimate that the company’s unit non-oil cost maximization increased by less than 2 percentage points, which was a decrease from the previous two quarters. Overall, in the third quarter, the company’s unit ASK operating cost was saved.

  The cost level continued to be optimized, and the performance basically met the expected company cost level, and the sales expense ratio was 1.

43%, a decrease of 0 per year.

04pct; management (including R & D) expense ratio 2.

32%, rising by 0 every year.

13pct; financial expense ratio is 0.

67%, a decrease of 0 per year.

80pct; other benefits 2.

4 billion, a slight decline in previous years. Overall, the performance was basically in line with expectations.

  After the season change, the increment of time increases. After the replacement of the first-line market resources in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the company’s hourly increment is increased after the winter and spring.

7%, and obtained a certain time increment at Shanghai Hongqiao, Guangzhou Baiyun, Shenzhen Baoan Airport, which is the basis for sustainable development.

  Investment advice The company’s excellent cost management and control capabilities take the lead in the fierce market competition, can be weak and have strong profit stability, and the future development is still promising.

We continue to be optimistic about the growth and development space of Spring Airlines.

The profit forecast and target price are not revised for the time being. It is 苏州桑拿网 estimated that the net profit attributable to the mother for 2019-2021 will be 19 respectively.

3 billion, 22.

0 billion, 24.

900 million, an increase of 28 each year.6%, 13.

8%, 13.

1%, EPS is 2.

11 yuan, 2.

40 yuan, 2.

71 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations, increase in oil prices, exchange rate changes, security incident